Sahih Muslim Book 041, Hadith Number 6923.
Abu Huraira reported Allah's Messenger (may the peace and blessings of Allah be upon him) as saying:
1. Iraq would withhold its dirhams and qafiz;
2. Syria would withhold its mudd and dinar and
3. Egypt would withhold its irdab and dinar and
4. You would recoil to that position from where you started and
(Repeated). You would recoil to that position from where you started and
(Repeated). You would recoil to that position from where you started,
Muslim: Book 41, Number 6961:
Abu Nadra reported: We were in the company of Jabir b. ‘Abdullah that he said:
Some research on this Hadith:
According to this Hadith - "sanctions" would be imposed on 3 countries in the Middle-East in specific order as mentioned in the Hadith:
Let us do some detailed evaluation of this Hadith.
The Hadith says:
“Iraq would with hold its dirham and qafiz”
Dirham = Money (see below for details)
1 Dinar = Gold Coin weighing 72 grains of average barley. This is now calculated as: 4.45 gm of Gold.
1 Dirham = (7/10) = 0.7 Dinar. (i.e. Dirham is 70% of a Gold Dinar).
It should be noted that the word “Qafiz” has been used through history for a measure of oil! Because of the Arab influence over southern Italy the Sicilian language has also borrowed some words from Arabic. One such word is clearly from the Arabic “Qifaz” and that word in Sicilain language is “Cafisu” - (cafiso: measure of oil) - [Arabic: qafiz]
This means that the sanctions imposed on Iraq would be about “Money and Oil”. i.e. An economic sanction with holding Money and Oil. (Remember the UN sanctions on Iraq and the Oil for Food programme).
The Non-Arabs would prevent them
As the Hadith about Iraq sanctions mentions - "The Non-Arabs would prevent them" - meaning that generally the Arab population would not be in favour of the sanctions in Iraq and it would be implemented by groups of nations - mostly non Arabs (i.e. Western Powers + United Nation)
We now know as a fact that economic sanctions were imposed on Iraq - after which there was 1st Persian Gulf War and then a 2nd Persian Gulf War.
Duration of the Sanctions & War on Iraq
Sanctions were imposed (which can be seen in military terminology as a technique with the goal of “Softening up the Target”.
The Number of Muslims Killed in Iraq
The result of the war on Iraq is clear. Although Saddam Hussain is gone – thousands upon thousands of Muslims have perished in this “foreign imposed war”.
A study, published in prestigious medical journal The Lancet, estimated that over 600,000 Iraqis had been killed as a result of the invasion (as of July 2006). Iraqis have continued to be killed since then.
Syria would withhold its mudd and dinar ...
The Hadith mentions “Mudd and Dinar” in reference to Syria.
Mudd = typically used as a measure of Wheat, or more generally food (rice, wheat, barley, bread, etc). One Mudd is equated to ¾ of a kilogram, or sometimes as 708 grams. A mudd is a measure, commonly translated in today's terminology as a "Bushel"
Further - the general food sanctions/witholding would be of a smaller nature compared to the sanctions imposed on Iraq (as Mudd refers to a small measure of general food items of around 708 grams).
Considering the sanctions on Syria - the hadith mentions “This prevention would be made by the Romans". Also please note that this time it was not mentioned that "The non-Arabs would prevent them" - this means that not just non-Arabs but even Arab government and population will be included in this.
This is clearly visible by the direct involvement of many Arab countries in the Middle-east such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Gulf Countries, and even “fighters” have poured in from as far as Tunisia and Libya.
This means that the key driver of sanctions against Syria would be present day Romans - i.e. Europeans and USA plus UK.
Considering what happened with Iraq - a similar fate seems to now be emerging as the expected outcome in Syria - resulting in war, then destruction of the country and finally withdrawal of occupation forces. Already nearly 80,000 plus Muslims have perished in this internal strife and war in Syria.
Considering that war in Syria started in 2012 – although without direct and visible involvement of “Roman” forces yet (no boots on the ground) - if we expect this to take around the same time as in Iraq, it may take potentially until 2012+22 = 2034.
Egypt would with hold its irdab and dinar and
Taking the hadith to its logical conclusion - we can expect that after the conflict in Syria finishes - a situation similar to that which happened in Iraq / Syria - would finally happen in Egypt.
When Husni Mubarak was in power - I used to think how the west can be against Egypt - as Mubarak was their own man. However - as the "revolution" started and Ikhwan (Muslim Brotherhood) started to come to power - it became clear to me that - this will happen after Ikhwan or may be a combination of "Islamist" parties stay in power for sometime in Egypt and start to change the policies - specially the policy of being friendly with Israel and blocking aid to Palestinians. Further imagine if the Islamic parties in Egypt rip apart the agreement signed with Israel about Sinai - and take ownership of Sinai - then - it will be considered as "open challenge" to Israel and the US and according to the current terms of agreement would be “an act of war”. Only Allah (swt) knows how the situation in Egypt would develop – however – already the “Islamist” parties have come to power in Egypt and already the relationship between Egypt and the Western Powers has changed.
Irdab is a special measure especially related to Egypt.
1 Irdab = 73 KG (of Wheat)
When talking about grain - Irdab generally means wheat free from rubblish, dirt and the husks. More generally Irdab also refers to fruit in their dried state - such as dried dates and raisins.
Hence the economic sanctions against Egypt would impact dried fruits and wheat imports/exports and ofcourse dinar (money).
The present and future governments and citizens of Egypt - specially those who have any concern for the Muslims there - should take heed and start preparing for such eventuality by making sure that they can protect and defend themselves from certain onslaught that is to befall them in the future - as Hadith can never be wrong.
Update on Egypt: 08/04/2015
I am compelled to make some clarification and dare I say "predictions" based on the above ahadeed about Egypt, since now it is ruled by another ruthless wolf in sheeps clothing named "Sisi". As - it is abundantly clear that ethnic and religious "fault-lines" are being used to divide and rule the Muslims in the Middle-East - specially Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, & Yemen - mostly on Shia/Sunni divide - a new fault-line is emerging that I fear will rip apart not just Egypt but the rest of the Middle-East. This new fault line is - Salafi vs Ikhwan. A quick search would reveal that Billions of Arab Middle-East Petro-Dollars have been poured into Egypt to support "Sisi" and the "Ḥizb Al‑Nūr (Al-Nour) Salafi party, while Ikhwan all over Middle-east are being persecuted and even donations for Hamas - that used to be common through-out Middle-East has been left high and dry. Hence - to me it seems clear that the destruction of Egypt will be done using the Salafi vs ikhwan fault-line in addition to various other divides in the Egyptian society.
Finally the hadith mentions
you would recoil to that position from where you started and
you would recoil to that position from where you started and
you would recoil to that position from where you started,
"You would recoil to the position from where you started" to me means exactly what it says - that the muslims in various parts of the world - would recoil (i.e. return) to the position from where they started. This can most likely mean that muslims return to their places of origin - so the majority of muslims in non-muslim lands (like Muslims living in North America, and Europe) would potentially return to their land of origin in the Middle-East in great numbers. This would happen if the economic situation in these countries continue to deteriorate to the point that racism, islamophobia and islam bashing becomes common place and a muslim wearing islamic dress or a woman wearing Hijab or Niqab will be banned... early signs of all these have already started happening and I fear that this trend will only continue over time.
Additional Comments Added On:08/04/2015:
Some readers are incorrectly assuming that " you would recoil to that position from where you started," means returning to the true path, true deen, and true manhaj. This is incorrect, although over time Muslims will have no choice BUT to return to the true path. This specifically means - return to the places of origin. Otherwise the text would have read something like " you would recoil to your deen (or to Sunnah, or to your true manhaj) from where you started, ".
For those who say "what about the reverts" - please understand that the Islamic rules explain the "General Principles" and NOT the exceptions. E.g. A general rule is that the animal horse is Haram, although according to the rule on exceptions - if a Muslims' life can be saved - then under such situation eating a "horse" would become temporarily halal for such person or people (imagine people dying of hunger in Syria, or in Gaza - when under blockade). So here this section talks about the "general rule". There will always be exceptions and it can't be that 100% all Muslims will leave - but what should be taken from this - is that certain events will unfold that will make it impossible for the vast majority of Muslims to continue to live and practice their deen or live with security of life and property. This is very easy to see - as the situation is only getting from bad to worse for Muslims in the West. Now imagine - if some "extremist group" as part of a blow back, or some black ops results in an event such as another 9/11 (May Allah protect all from it)... I leave it to the readers to come to their own conclusion.
And Allah (azza wa jal) knows best.